Cameron Lopez Cameron Lopez

Betting Markets Can’t Predict Elections Better than Polling Averages

Prediction Markets aren’t predicting polling error, they are just simply GOP biased. This is most notable in “What will be the Electoral College margin in the 2020 presidential election?” Market, where Trump winning the Electoral College by over 280 Vote Margin is at 5 cents (5% likely to happen).

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Cameron Lopez Cameron Lopez

The Discourse is Broken Beyond Repair

Mrs. Democrat will say it’s horrifying and America will not like it (she hasn’t talked to anyone making under 50k in 8 years), and Mr. Republican will say it’s what all of America thinks (he hasn’t talked to anyone making under 50k in 8 years).

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